Gray-market sizing report
How many units and how many dollars of unlicensed vape hardware and product enter the United States, quarter by quarter, split licensed against unlicensed, with a hemp-ban scenario stated as a scenario.
- Units entering the US per quarter, built from inbound manifests and reconciled against factory capacity and importer counts
- Dollar value at each step of the chain, so the number can be stated at factory cost, landed cost or retail value
- The licensed / unlicensed split, keyed to whether the consignee appears in any state licence list
- State-level breakdown for the states covered, with the gray-to-licensed price gap each one carries
- A hemp-exemption scenario: what the baseline implies under a federal close, labelled as modelled and never as observed
- Hardware makers sizing their own addressable market
- Hedge funds trading the listed Chinese suppliers
- Large licensed brands
- Alcohol and beverage companies watching a substitute category
- State regulators and legislative staff
Their revenue forecasts already contain a number for this market, and right now that number is a guess. No credible estimate exists in public: trade press figures trace back to each other, and the official statistics count the licensed market only. A defensible floor with the method shown is worth more than a precise figure nobody can audit.